HomeLecturesHarvard Speaks on Climate Change: Martin Weitzman: “Fat Tails and Uncertainty in Climate Change Impacts”
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Harvard Speaks on Climate Change: Martin Weitzman: “Fat Tails and Uncertainty in Climate Change Impacts”

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The impact on global temperatures of a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 levels is a probability distribution with a “fat tail,” meaning that as the magnitude of climate change impact increases, its probability goes to zero slowly. With a fat tail distribution, the focus should be on additional research on outlier catastrophes, rather than just looking at the median or mean change.

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